tv Fast Money CNBC April 14, 2016 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT
entanglement with all sorts of european and american regulators, now taking them on. thank you guys so much. that does it for us. "fast money" begins right now. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square. tonight on fast, the man who called the crash in august and recently called the rally in oil has an even bolder call for stocks. he'll be here to tell you what that is. a top technician said the market is on the top of a breakout if one thing happens. he'll tell you what that is and how you can profit. later, as earning season kicks into full swing, we've got the five stocks that could make or break the market. what could be a potential game changer for stocks. centered on the lack of breadth and a dash for materials and energy stocks could now be called into question. today the financials surged,
despite lackluster earnings. if the rally continues on, will the bears surrender. naturally, we must pose this question to the biggest one of all, bk. >> i thought you meant guy. so does the rally in financials change my view? the answer is absolutely not. not that at all. we talk about the fact that the bar is very, very low for financials coming into this. what today looked like was just simply, let's call it a short covering rally, a catch uprally, whatever you want to call it. i don't think it was a fundamental game changer. jpmorgan was probably the best of the breed. the rest of them said, it doesn't seem to be that fantastic. yes, they had loan growth. but when you're not making any money on those loans, one, it doesn't matter, and two, you've got to make a lot of loans to make more money. so nothing in the rally in the financials changed my view. i would note that actually the european financials were down on the day. >> we talk about price action a lot. the fact that bank of america, wells fargo, pnc, they all had
problems in their earnings and yet seemed to do okay in today's session, after gains yesterday. isn't that good price on bad news? >> everything brian said i absolutely agree with. then to your point, price action trumps everything. you can have the most interesting they sis, and he absolutely does. no question. i can't even argue that. what i'll say is, though, the price action trumps it all. what happens is, as we continue to grind higher now, through that 2025 level i thought we would fade after, more and more people come in and chase. 2135 which was the high a year ago in may is right in the crosshairs. everything brian said is 100% right. >> but it does not participate the way you think, then you're wrong. it doesn't matter -- >> absolutely. >> so you're wrong. i've been wrong. and when you look at the market, you have to play it within the
phase of a trading range. you have to look at that number guy talked about, the 2015 area, the 20-day moving area. but you have to look at the old highs. 2116, 2134. if you look at it through that prism, i think it makes it easier to trade this market. i think what's happening with bk is what happens with me on a constant basis. you get emotionally attached to your belief. and it doesn't allow you to pull the trigger. >> i don't know -- >> no, no, not at all. absolutely not. listen, i have my bear thesis on the big picture, macro what's going on in the world. that being said, as a trader, i need to make sure that i protect the portfolio. i need to make sure that i have stocks in there. to that point, we are at that inflection point right now. >> would you short the banks? >> no. i'm short credit suisse. >> i look at the banks. the move has been predicated on a lot of short covering and underweight. you look at the names that have been moving. really moving in this market.
look at csx yesterday. they didn't guide down. stock actually went up. same situation in the -- in other sectors. banks, i think we're seeing a little bit of a relief rally or repositioning rally. it's not going to last. i don't think it lasts. >> you pair that -- pair today's actions with yesterday's rotation, and we saw the more cyclical sectors, industrials. >> look, i'm careful, i'm using the word rotation from that standpoint. i think it's just repositioning. i don't believe it to be rotation in the sense of real buyers coming in -- >> the moving crude, for global growth. i think global growth has been signified. the canary in the coal mine has been crude. positioning ahead of opec -- >> do you think that the people see that move above 40, they're like, it's game on for stocks? or do you think that the earnings expectations are so low, that we actually -- >> a combination of all of the
above. >> fear of missing out. that's the biggest risk is we still get this momentum going and everybody says, you know what, i can't miss it. i've got it killed already. i missed this rally. i've got to get in. that is the biggest risk to any bear thesis. >> investors are shaving all-time highs. >> you need to be -- >> it hurts the most amount of people at any given time. >> okay. i need to take a poll here then. >> i like the polls. >> raise your hand. do you think the markets are going to go higher and see all-time highs? just a few percentage points from here. >> no question they can go higher. so i think right now, momentum -- >> raise your hand if you believe yes. raise your hand. >> i think we do. >> these two on this side. why not? >> this opec meeting, doha meeting on sunday, that is a
huge wild card. if they come out and walk away from the table, and crude opens -- >> i do think crude pulls back. >> i think you're missing a big point here. the point about positioning in particular. but look at the names, these momentum accounts, anything momentum related, we talk about quantity funds. they're killing it this year. fundamentals, long or short, they're getting crushed. the guys that got run over on the short side are fearful right now for this market to grind higher. they're starting to dip their toe in the water a little bit. this market could melt up a little bit. and that is the topoff. >> i do believe it's crucial, crucial opec meeting. i do believe you'll see crude back off. but i do believe also that -- >> backing off no matter what? no matter what happens at the opec meeting? >> a cut in production -- it's built in already, but people are so afraid of selling into that opec meeting. no matter what, crude backs off, market backs off. but we make newhi s.
>> let's get to our next guest who had a bold call on oil right here on "fast money" earlier this year. take a listen. >> it means oil is likely to actually go higher. long oil, short interest, long/short trade. >> since then, crude oil has rallied more than 35%, while the s&p 500 is up 10%. marco is the global head of strategies at jpmorgan. marco, always great to have you with us. >> thank you, melissa. >> we had a pretty spirited debate as to where the markets go. i think we're at the point where the markets are, what do you do? what do you think? >> i can actually connect with both sides. my view is that sort of market will go lower. now, there is some risk that basically if we breach 2100, if you look at the 2100 now, it's a 12-month price. if we can bridge that long-term price momentum, it will basically invite different type
of accounts. cpas primarily. they are pushing higher. on the down side, we're looking at 2030, 2040 levels where all the momentum turns negative. then i think it would be much more significant. if i had to pick a side, i would say down. there is a risk of this last leg. and i would say like at that point, cpas and momentum players will probably be the last buyer of this market. and the reason for that is, it is expensive. and i think we do need to see earnings -- better earnings before we could sustain those. i have to go sort of down, market down, with some risk of the last sort of rally. >> so he's on your side. >> let's talk about the fundamentals. in japan, not just in the short duration, but longer dated stuff. everything getting ratcheted down. where do negative interest rates play into your thesis? >> negative interest rates, you
know, initial low interest rates were supportive of the equity markets. when they become negative, i think there's a lot of tricky situations that can happen. with financials, with reactions of the market in japan, and in europe, it's not been on the negative rates, it's not been what you would expect from the declining rates always. so i think that's going to be sort of -- i think in the end the negative interest rates will get a hold in the market. so i would be cautious of sort of forecasting negative interest rates for too long out. i think that's going to be one of those things that will not live too long. >> you say we're in the goldilocks period right now. two of them -- it wouldn't seem like they should rise in the same sort of environment. gold and emerging markets. can you walk us through how you see both of them going up? >> sure. if you look at the commodities, including gold and oil, those assets took a significant beating over the last two years rallying dollar.
this rallying dollar was sort of premised behind the dollar rally was the fed off, and sort of steep curve. now it's basically on hold. i think the money that flew out of these market segments is going to go back into that. so i think gold, you know, again, you can look at it as a currency, against other curre y currenci currencies. look at it as a positive trade even. you could even look at it as a hedge, you know. and i do highlight in our economy, there is still meaningful chance of recession in the u.s. in the next few months. >> lower than january, correct? >> so my estimate of bear market is lower than in january. that's because the fed significantly is changing the tone, right? so i think the risk of a bear market is lower. i said 50% in january. now maybe 30%. 30% is still a high number. economic recession according to our economy is about 28%. and recession is arguably more
severe condition than the bear market. it can have a bear market without a recession. these numbers are still actually fairly elevated. we're still in a cycle seven, eight years. i think gold can serve two purposes. it can be a currency against negative yields, and further increase of central bank balance sheets. it can also be a hedge portfolio. and there are two sides to the story. we were shorting gold for many years, now they're long. >> i want to underscore what you said before, and that is the last leg up to 2100 is the riskiest. if we get through that level then, though, what happens? >> if we get through that level, basically, you know, cta is going to be fully long equities. they're not going to get longer than that. if you look at the hedge funds right now, it's about 80%. you know, i hear a lot of clients saying everybody's on the edge. but they're actually fairly invested in equities. so i wouldn't see much more
money from any quaunt or hedge fund community coming in. you have the buyer stepping in at that point. it will be 18, above 18. and they're not going to do that. so i think it's very hard for me to see markets holding that level, even if it goes in. again, to a little bit, you know, with the other side of the desk, we may not even get there. if we have an oil sort of, which you mentioned oil pulls back 3%, 4%, still positive, s&p may follow it and we never telly reach this 12-month long-term momentum. >> thank you for coming by. >> thank you very much. >> i love marko. he's speaking my language. the fundamental guys can't participate with valuations that took off. we saw it in the commodities, and a lot of the oily names. they just don't make sense. that's why i say, it's very sector specific, very stock specific. again, valuations just don't pass the sniff test for a
fundamental. >> you need to breach that 2116 level. so when marko talks about this, the down side, 2.5%, trading range right now, if you want to keep flat on year, your risk tolerance isn't the best, 2043 is the target. what do million-dollar condos, exotic sports cars and fancy bags all have in common? they are all signaling major problems for the rich, and that could spell trouble for your portfolio. we'll explain. a top technician said in order for stocks to break out, one sector really needs to start rallying. he'll reveal what that is and how you can profit. we've got the five companies that could have the biggest impact on your money. ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪
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not if you just put the finishing touches on your latest masterpiece. timing's important. comcast business knows that. that's why you can schedule an installation at a time that works for you. even late at night, or on the weekend, if that's what you need. because you have enough to worry about. i did not see that coming. don't deal with disruptions. get better internet installed on your schedule. comcast business. built for business. welcome back to "fast money." breaking news on the bass ipo. seema? >> bass global has priced its ipo at $19 a share. that according to dow jones, which is at the high end of its initial price range of 17 to 19. raising more than $250 million in its offering. remember, this is the exchange operator's second attempt at going public after 2012 which
resulted in erroneous trades. it's one of the most anticipated trades of 2016. bass global will go back on the exchange tomorrow pricing at $19. >> top of the range there. is this any indicator of an ipo market that may be coming back, guy? >> we haven't had an ipo now, one or two the entire calendar year. is it indicative of anything? i would say no. one does not make a trend. give me a few more and we can have a conversation. >> but if it is a market that's opening up again, that's more supply of stocks. for me, if i look at supply/demand dynamics, i don't want to see an ipo market that opens up. the bulls would want to see less supply. >> interesting. >> no one wants to bring their ipo to market. obviously this is a different situation with bass. they tried it before. they're trying it again. they haven't had terribly amount of good luck. but it's indicative of a market that's getting its footing back.
but like guy said, one does not make a trend. >> it better go a lot more smoothly. >> yeah. >> we might not be moving on up, because we're seeing what we are calling rich people problems hitting the market here. a profit warning to the sales miss, ferrari's underperformance going public back in october of 2015. down more than 11%. now trading up 37 after pricing at 52. to top that all off, what was once a sign of super wealth right here in new york city, the 1,004-foot luxury tower known as one 57, can't seem to fill its units. basically it is hard out there for the super rich. >> sorry, guy. >> thank you, weezy. >> a lot of people don't get that. >> fantastic. there are a number of things working against us. let's try to frame this. 2013-'14 when we were torching the u.s. dollar because of our
fed's actions, people were coming in from overseas buying things like at tiff fannies. the dollar stabilized. that's working against them. number one. number two, the oil money that was rampant years ago is clearly not there now. you also have the political landscape. now i'm on the third rail, but i'll say this, it's not cool to be rich. i'm not saying i am, but if you would listen to any of the politicians now -- >> you are. >> it's not cool to be rich. >> you are cool. >> i am cool. but i'm not rich. >> let's make that clear. >> i think people reticent to go to tiffany's, to buy a ferrari, i think you've got a lot of things working against that trade right now. if you're trying to pick a bottom in tiffany's, i think you're early. >> i agree. it's not even the super rich, it's people in the middle class, where wall street's laying off, banking business isn't coming back. you're seeing what's happening with all these companies. it's very terrifying period.
>> rich folks buy stock. >> everybody buys stocks. >> well, the rich buy stocks. >> 100 people own stocks through pension funds, so there's not -- we're relying on rich to buy stocks, i think that's -- >> i totally disagree with that. if you have a stock account, you would be classified as rich. so my point is, if you look at this, and you see people not buying luxury real estate and not buying ferrari cars, why would they buy stocks? these are the owners of companies. these are real people -- >> for so many years, from china, russia, when things slow down -- >> okay, the broker who sells the luxury real estate. what do they do with their commission? they buy stocks. that's what's going on in the world. >> when you take a look at it, chinese buyers in oil wealth, all of this is overseas. what's happening to the global slowdown? maybe that can impact the u.s. stock market. >> it could, absolutely. >> it is.
>> you buy something at coors, gap, whatever it is, no one's doing that. it's discretionary income. investment money is investment money. >> nobody ever does that. >> i look at it in two separate buckets. we're seeing a slowdown, higher end spending -- >> global money supply is contracting. there is less money around to buy things. that's what you're seeing here. >> unfortunately, everyone agrees with what you're saying, you're -- it's not fundamentally flawed. the problem is the fed has pushed everybody into risk assets. even if it's a month or so. trade the range right now. when you see the high end retailers, you look at the other ones that were punished collaterally, or peripherally, and look at kate spade, that one probably has 20% in it to the up side. if you get a chance to buy that on a discount, buy in the middle tier. >> i think it's very back end of
the year loaded. you have to wait until we get some guidance. i wouldn't touch any of these names until we see how things pan out. they push earnings down to the back half of the year. >> guy, back to you, if we agree rich people are feeling pain, the banks are feeling the pain. the wealth managers like in the past are not going to be doing well. >> manifesting itself for a lot of the earnings you're starting to see. jpmorgan earnings were good. they weren't gangbusters. neither was bank of america. they were just good in the context, myself included, everybody thought they would be disastrous. check out taiwan semi getting hit hard today. why this has some investors so worried about the health of the tech trade as a whole. here's what else is coming up on fast.
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welcome back to "fast money." time for the move of the day. the semiconductor weighed down heavily by one of apple's key suppliers. washed on slowing demand heavily tied to the smartphone world. should we start getting worried about the smartphone trade? >> no, i don't think so. i look at it still roughly $9 billion, $10 billion. i think the stock's done actually very well year-to-date. it's up 13%. $23 is kind of the line in the sand in my opinion on the stock. look at some of the other news. i'd be a buyer here. i think there is still strong demand for this. i don't look at this as a
warning sign, as the iphone is falling off the cliff. they saw demand in the $400 phones. they thought that would pick up significantly. i also look at the old technology. we talk about this. that's going to ramp up, i think. all the '17 phones will have it, i think. >> i'm getting one tomorrow. >> weren't you like four, five years ago -- >> i was in taiwan semi. that's going way back. the one theng i would say about this, let's connect a couple dotsd. the other day we saw juniper. we thought, you know what, maybe it's juniper specific. now we're starting to see some of the semiconductor makers not do so well. it makes me concerned and i look at cisco, approaching $30. as much as i like that dividend in cisco, i would sound the alarm. i would be taking some profits and wait and see at this point in time. still ahead, we've got three stocks in one beaten-down area of the market. we'll give you the names. a brutal year for valiant.
one trader's betting the bad news is about to get much worse for the stock. we'll gef you the trade when "fast money" returns. at mfs investment management, we believe in the power of active management. by debating our research to find the best investments. by looking at global and local insights to benefit from different points of view. and by consistently breaking apart risk to focus on long-term value.
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stocks gaining for a third straight session. the dow closing at the highest level since july 20th. the s&p 500 hit a fresh 2016 high. gold had the first interday loss in three weeks. think things could get worse for valeant? think again. one trader is betting $2.5 million that the stock could fall another 15% in the next month. we go behind the big bet. plus, if you're worried earnings could derail the rally, focus your attention on just five stocks. we start off with the markets. the next guest says stocks are about to surge. he's got the one sector that will lead us higher.
let's go to ari with 07 oppenheimer. >> we think the s&p 500 is going to break out to new highs this year. and here's why. and really comes down, we still see comparisons to the market now with that of 2008. 2008 was not a standard bear market. what we saw over the last year was a standard bear market. and here's where we get to that. you know, first if you look back through history, and we did the numbers, bear markets in the 1950s, 1960s, 1980s, 1990s, former secular bowls on average, they dropped 20%, and they lasted eight months from peak to trough. now, from may 2015, to february of this year, we were down 15% -- excuse me. over a nine-month period. so we didn't quite get the full 20%. but we think we trued up enough
time. this is what a bear market looks like, 1953, 156, 1959, 1983. they all had this type of move. we're all overbought coming into resistance. maybe we consolidate sideways but we think we get the breakout. here's why. and it gets to our favorite indicator of internal breadth, the advanced decline line. on this rally, from the february low, the advanced decline line is now breaking out to the up side. highest level since july of last year. you can't have it both ways. if you were saying breadth was bad this year, don't tell me it's overbought now. internal breadth is bullish. we respect that. we like the industrial sector. the s&p, the market as a whole still below its down trend line. xli, the spider etf, already reversing that down trend. nice double bottom here. nice reversal. good market behind it as well. we think xli ends up making new
highs with the market. >> ari, when you say break out to new highs, what sort of highs are we talking about on the broader index? >> our year end target is $22.50 by year end. we think there is nice up side here. we think you should be positioned for that. yes, we're overbought, but don't miss the forest for the trees here. the back drop is supportive of markets after two years of flat performance. spring coils, unwound to the up side, you want to have exposure to equities there. >> ari, thank you. ari wald of oppenheimer. forest for the trees, springs on coils. >> a couple things, my biggest problem with the broader market, the s&p if you assume $120 in earnings, eps, you're at a 17.5 multiple, in an environment that i don't think warrants a 17.5 multiple. number one. there is the pantheon of greatness on the smart board. >> pantheon. >> you like that? >> yeah. >> carter worth. >> steve grasso.
dan nathan. rich ross. today ari's performance, his work was fantastic. but he was just butchering that poor smart board. >> okay. >> just ratcheted himself right to the bottom of the hill. >> we should call it the guy board today then, right? >> i love ari, too. >> you'll do it? >> no. >> i'll do the dumb board. >> the chalkboard. >> pen and paper. in terms of industrials. >> up 6% year-to-date, or thereabouts. you know, i think that's a product of, do people get fooled still by where i started off the show by saying crude is an indication that global growth is coming back. do people get sucked into that, does china continue to stabilize? i think your best bet here on all of these things is look at flat on year for all of these things that you're going to invest in, and use that as your ultimate stop, so you don't get pulled into the buying the
highs, selling the lows. play it the right way now. 2043, flat on year, i think that's reasonable if we fail at 2100. >> this is a round about way of saying you wouldn't buy industrials. >> no, no, i would buy them. i think if the market continues to move higher, you can buy them. but always have a stop. be agnostic. don't be a bear, don't be a bull, be a trader. >> there are beaten-down names such as the rails. i talked about earlier on the show. i would buy them. i think the airlines will actually continue to work out well. and biotech. i think fundamentals are solid. i believe the drug pricing is overdone. earning season is about to kick into full gear. the biggest impacts on your money. a special "fast money" report right after the break. how to make money with twitter. >> that's right. >> inside his twitter feed, reveals his three deepest,
several weeks. we go over to a man who always has an impact, dom chu. dom? >> well, melissa sometimes i have an impact, sometimes i don't. let's talk about some of the impactful companies when it comes to powering earnings season. it's just a handful of names that are going to put in that dent type work in the overall earnings numbers. so according to howard silverblat, s&p 500 companies are estimated to generate operating profits of $25.77 a share. now, the five biggest profit generators in the index are going to account to an estimated 13% of all profits. you ballpark it, it means 1% of the index members, they're going to generate 13% of the profits. now, the biggest contributors, apple, $1.27 per share, or close to 5% of all profits just on its own. microsoft expected to add 58 cents a share, or around 2%. same goes for the likes of
jpmorgan chase, johnson & johnson, and wells fargo, each is going to contribute at least 50 cents per share to the overall numbers, as you can see there. those are the top five. we're not going to go into all the names, but if you were to add up the per share profit contributions of the ten biggest contributors, they'd make up a whopping 22% of total profits. now, admittedly, some of these profits are growing faster than others. that's always going to happen here. but melissa, some would call these the impact players, if you will, of this particular earnings season. back over to you guys. >> all right. thank you, dom chu. let's trade some of these names dom mentioned. all of these are obviously big cap stocks. a lot of them have the dividends people love. >> that's what you've got to weigh here. the dividends are going to be very important in this environment. now, you have those ten stocks or so that are going to make up 20% of them. as dave always says, there are stocks you can buy that might have growth and earnings like
that. but big picture here, what i would be concerned about, let's say the bar is low, we get the earnings. what's it going to look like going forward, what's the guidance coming. i would be less concerned about what they earned last quarter and what the guidance is going to be. >> i think it's the 19th they report 15 times forward earnings. it's become in a large part a consumer brands company. i think it made a 52-week high today. whisper of an all-time high. i think j & j earnings. >> i like them as well. i agree 100% with you. guidance is the most important thing to look at. even line stuff is working out. >> look at what's in the price, what's not in the price. apple, i think all the negativity, worried about the quarter, worried about slumping iphone sales, that's already in the numbers. that bounce level, 106 to 109, it broke out of that range. that was a retracement level. so you use that top of that range, as your floor now. that's your support.
breaks 109, exit the trade. right now good to still be long apple. >> twitter is a great resource to get information about earnings. no surprise all of us here on the desk love twitter. this week we're having the traders show you how they use twitter to make money. today it's our own bk. >> this is brian kelly. i'll show you how i use trade to trade better. the first thing is i use tweet deck. i can set up a bunch of different columns here and help me in my work flow. here's my main twitter feed. then i go over to my news feed. this tells me what the news outlets are talking about. see if there's a trend. the macro feed is all the traders i follow. i can leaf through there and say, this is the sentiment on the street about what all these news outlets are talking about. and then i go over to my "fast money" friends here and see what they've been talking about the last 24 hours or so, so i can
bounce ideas off them, talk about it on the show, or preshow calls that we have. finally, the one other way that i use twitter, which i think is really useful, when i don't know something going on in a stock. i will go through, let's say for example the other day at&t was down. i didn't know why. nobody had any good explanation. i went in here, searched for at&t using the #t. everything pops right in here. shows me everything that's been tweeted about at&t. for the last several hours. and if i want to, i can click on add column. i've got a column here that shows me everything that's being said about at&t on twitter. so that way if i'm away from the office, i can look and just go down that line. that's how i use twitter to trade better. follow me at bk brian kelly. >> how did you use twitter today? >> today, actually, i focused twitter mainly on oil. because we have this doha meeting coming on sunday. we know what the news was. i could use tweet deck and say this sh what everybody's reporting. what was most important to me
today is what traders were saying. i looked at what people are talking about. whether or not they believe in it. you know, the general sentiment was, how can you believe in an opec meeting, they don't agree on anything, why would they agree now. even if they do, it's a freeze at a large production level. so that's where i really got the insighted today was kind of getting the sentiment of the market. >> you can tell how important a trader is by his view from his office. that was an amazing view. >> yeah. >> the corner office. >> the corner of the basement. >> melissa's shoe is right behind you. >> that was my office here at the nasdaq. >> come on. >> i have the view. and all my shoes are under my desk. >> that's fantastic. >> it is going to be popular. >> i'll have to get myself one of those. >> when you're at the application store this weekend, get one. >> i usually bring my 13-year-old son in and he reads twitter for me because i'm so
technologically inept. but brian, that is incredible. there are other services that i use that filter out stocks, names that i'm involved in, and it will shoot into my own viewing system. so it will extract the names and either verified or not from a certain source that i want to really follow. >> we have collectively so many different sources that we use and aggregate during the course of the day. and see news headlines pop up. but lately, twitter actually beats a lot of the news services when you hit up dollar signs stock. it is beating the news services. when you can't find it anywhere else, there's chatter going on on twitter. >> especially if it's a sudden drop or spike in a stock and you're wondering what's going on. that's one of the first places i go. still ahead, the biggest moves in biotech can come to three stocks next week. we'll tell you which names and how you can get ahead of the trades next. from the winners to one big loser, shares of valeant are down 20% this year. one trader made a massive bet.
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stocks could be coming next week. our resident stock therapist, meg terrell. meg, which stock? >> we've got biotech on the brain today because we're talking about the neurology meeting that is kicking off tomorrow in vancouver. so this is focused on a lot of smaller biotech names. a classic stock there, catalysts coming up. the three names that folks are focusing on here are blue bird -- they won't all have huge massive movesext week. people are going to be watching closely. for some of these names, like sage and serapta, it's setting a stage meeting ahead of catalysts this year. we talked about the muscular distrophy drug. a showing at the fda at the end of this month. noing earth shattering coming out ahead of that, but people looking closely at this one obviously. sage is a name we haven't talked about very much. they're working in a rare disoffereder called super re
frac tory epilepsy. what that means is patients who get seizures and don't come out of them. they get put in a medically induced coma so they stay alive. they're going to present more data at this conference next week. but then in the second half of next year, the phase three results will come out. that will be a really big event for sage. the other reason people find this stock interesting is they're testing this drug in post-p postpartum depression. we should get data sooner than the other indications. people are watching sage very closely. obviously with the biotech names, you've got to do your research. it could go up or down quite a lot. analysts are looking positively at this right now. you've seen all three of these names run up into this conference. >> david, are you following this? >> you know, i can't talk about these names in particular because i've got interest in them with my firm. but i'd say in general, to see
interest really come back, in smaller names like this, this is the kind of catalyst we need. we need the data coming out to get the love to come back essentially if you will in the small to mid cap names. they're there in the larger cap names. the fundamentals are strong from an earnings perspective, but there's really still a lot of concern that you think is it going to be it to get things sparked up again. >> if the data are good, it would be good for the industry. >> you talk to analysts all the time. i've asked them with this inversion debacle, or stop on inversions, would there be more interest in the biotechs because those are deals that can actually get done. and companies still need to expand their pipeline. >> they hope it will bring biotech back. m & a is something people are counting on. >> gilead is going to make a big acquisition. they can't do that, they'll got to bolt something big enough.
>> the zika virus, anything out there in terms of what we should be watching stock-wise or just a nonstarter at this point? >> when you have the emerging infectious diseases like ebola, we saw the smaller cap names trading in volatile ways on this. we're not seeing that with zika. we're looking at names like sanafeed, developing a vaccine in the early stages. but these are not names that will swing wildly on zika. we have a whole offering on this on monday. >> oh, nice tease. >> good. thank you. good to see you, meg terrell. valeant falling after standard and poor's falling. betting the pain is far from over. mike? >> we saw 1 1/2 times the average put volume in valeant today. all of that unusual activity was
one single trade. somebody bought 40,000 of the 30 1/2 -- 27 1/2 put spread that expire on may 6th. that's three weeks from tomorrow. that was actually an adjustment of a previous bearish bet. looks like they're betting on a decline in the neighborhood of 10% plus in the next three weeks from these already depressed levels. >> what's interesting, this trade has come up and there are reports that bill miller of mason has actually bought valeant shares, betting it's going to be a double year. this is a battleground stock profit. >> down 70% year-to-date. i think at a certain point you've got to say, maybe i take a flier out on it. if you know your risk, i mean, for me, this is not where i'd like to swim. but i definitely can see -- >> why somebody would? >> exactly. someone could say, let me have a defined risk. maybe a risk strategy and get involved in the name. >> that's the best way to do it if you want -- try using options in this. you just don't have any idea
what's going on. 7,000 plus stocks out there. why choose this one? b.k. wouldn't swim here either. >> i agree. i love risk. i don't like this risk. i say options markets is the best way to play. again, i look for a different source. >> i'll swim. i'll absolutely swim. because you know what, they both wind up -- they both can be right. mike's put buyer might well be correct. and bill miller, because he's not -- >> the longer term horizon. >> he's in it for the next couple years. he could end up being right as well. i think the put buyer is -- >> if it's still here in the next couple of years. >> ought in austin, texas. sorry. i was just joking. coming up tonight, cramer's getting down to business. the company that's creating a realtime marketplace for advertising. cramer's getting the lowdown on
mobile business from the ceo of the rubicon project. coming up next, the final trade. stay tuned. here at td ameritrade, they work hard. wow, that was random. random? no. it's all about understanding patterns. like the mail guy at 3:12pm every day or jerry getting dumped every third tuesday. jerry: every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. there's no way to predict that. td ameritrade. ♪ i could get used to this. now you can, with the luxuriously transformed 2016 lexus es and es hybrid. ♪
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check out this viral video showing a monkey drop kicking an unsuspecting a pedestrian to the ground. and he flees over a rooftop. it wasn't monkeying around. >> if i had a nickel for every time that's happened to me. >> that's the same thing in the hangover movie, right? >> the same one. the only monkey in the whole world. >> can he sue? >> what? >> can he sue that guy? >> can the monkey sue that guy? that's the most courageous thing i've ever seen. >> grasso? >> dick's sporting goods. more room to climb here. the stock is up pretty good year-to-date. i think the leveling out in the competition in the space. >> western digital down today. i think it will go a lot lower. the stock could be low 30s from the current 41 level. i would be shorting wdc.
>> twitter hot shot here, b.k. >> a lot of questions about the twitter package. the clip up online so you can see the tweets. it was crazy, i got a couple of hundred followers just from that twitter pete? >> target. see you tomorrow. "mad money" starts right now. \s my mission is simp -- to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you philadelphia find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money" respect welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends, i'm trying to save you money. my job is not only to teach you, but educate you. call me or tweet me. so much of investing depends on your time frame. if you think too short term, if you think like it. >> buy buy